News Bits 2004 - 6
Thanks to fee: OSCAR TALK - ISSUE #36 Yes, its that time again... "You can’t be serious?" "This early?" "Didn’t we just finish this year’s race?" Yes, we really are a crazy bunch – us Oscar predictors. Its like who you’re gonna put on the 3rd line next year right after you just one the Stanely Cup. But nonetheless, "year-in-advance" Oscar predictions – as they’ve come to be known – are becoming very exciting and popular among pundits. Its also interesting to note that the year in advance predictions which most people were predicting have been fairly accurate for the last two years which the success of MILLION DOLLAR BABY being the only big winner that anyone missed (due to its late entry into the race late November). Two years ago, ROTK was the clear year-in-advance favorite, and we all now how that went down. Last year, THE AVIATOR was the favorite, and had it not been for Clint, THE AVIATOR probably would have won 7 Oscars last month. So, while some may shrug off early-bird prognosticating, they forget how well we’ve got at it over the last few years. While none of us has the inside scoop or can predict flops like GONY or COLD MOUNTAIN – both films which looked like pure gold on paper – , its still a rewarding endeavor....and something to do until the first Oscar films start coming out in early May.... So sit back, relax, and enjoy OscarTalk’s year-in-advance Oscar predictions. I’ll be highlighting what I believe to be the 5 frontrunners with the best shot at Best Picture right now. Contenders OLIVER TWIST – The book has already won Best Picture before and Polanski just won in 2002. But, look out for the film if it can really distance itself from the musical and past films. And Kingsley is actually a threat to win an Oscar if he really hits Fagin out of the park, it’s a meaty role. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN – Ah, Ang Lee...We’ll I’d say this one would be a lock for a nomination if it wasn’t for the gay content. Lets face it, the Academy still hasn’t gotten over the gay thing and usually people only win if they’re playing a gay guy who’s dying of AIDS. And Heath Ledger? Isn’t that the guy from KNIGHTS TALE? However, if China continues to be a real biatch on Taiwan then then awarding Lee might be the America’s way of telling the Peoples Republic of China to "bite me". RENT – From the director of HARRY POTTER and HOME ALONE comes.......RENT! Okay.....Great musical. Great movie? Meh. THE PRODUCERS – Overrated musical. Great movie? Somethings telling me this baby’s run outta steam....so no. JARHEAD – The wonderful Sam Mendes is back with a gulf-war drama. And hes brought the newly minted Jamie Foxx with him. Well I guess it depends on the spin of the movie. If it turns into an all out anti-war film then it’ll be probably too controversial at this day in age to make it. If it is an anti-war film but still has a bit of "ra-ra America" in it, then it could be fine. The cast looks nice. But the other thing is, Universal can only look after so many of its babies, and its got lots this year. I think two films in particular (more on that later) will be taking the campaigning thunder away from this one. WALK THE LINE – The Johnny cash biopic. I think this one has some potential but it’ll probably just garner buzz (and possible wins...) for its lead actors Reese Witherspoon and the incredible Joaquin Phoenix. It could end up like RAY, a decent biopic with a great performance at the center, but nothing spectacular. KING KONG
– Probably just a contender for the tech categories. However,
the entire LOTR team is basically back, so they could almost be considered
locks for some tech nominations. But hey? You never know. Everyone will
be watching to see if Jackson can make another masterpiece of if it
was just dwarvish luck. 5. THE NEW WORLD – November 9th (New Line) watch trailer Its funny how you go one year with a ton of epics (2003) and then you get a year like the one we just had with basically only one epic in the running. Well, this year you’re looking at one bonafide HUGE year, with all of the leading contenders for Oscar being epics in one way or another. Terrence Malick’s NEW WORLD will suit the Oscar pedigree just fine. It tells the story of the colonial Americans first contact with the native peoples in Jamestown in the 17th century. The film stars Colin Farrell, Christopher Plummer and Christian Bale. The trailer looks half decent but I have reservations about how the public will receive this movie. For one, the relationship between John Smith and Pocahontas always raises highbrows and there has been some talk about what kind of rating the movie will garner and how explicit things will get between Farrell and Q’Orianka Kilcher who plays the young Pocahontas. This film could also be a stumbling block with mainstream voters and with average Amercians would don’t have the same regard for Malick as the critics do. Then there’s the fact that even Chris Rock pointed out "Colin Farrell, is no Russell Crowe." Nonetheless, THE NEW WORLD should be a big player in the Oscar race this year and if things work out and a couple of the ‘big fish’ don’t measure up, it has the size and the scope to go all the way. Plus, the release date is quite nice and before the big December rush. 4. MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA – December 9th (Columbia) Well, if any film has a better release date than NEW WORLD is Rob Marshall’s offerring MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA. Based on the internally acclaimed novel by Arthur Golden, tells the romantic and epic story of lovers during the years surrounding WWII Japan. It stars Ziyi Zhang and Ken Watannabe and features what will surely be the most visually dazzling and impressive sets, costumes and cinematography of the year. Mark this baby down as a leading contender for almost every visual tech category in the running. Again, GEISHA has got all the rights goods but Rob Marshall is still a baby in a year crowed with veterans like Ang Lee, Ron Howard, and of-course Steven Spielberg. Can Rob repeat the success he had with musical theatre in CHICAGO? Only time will tell... 3. VENGEANCE – December 23rd (Universal/Dreamworks SKG) If Spielberg can actually pull it off and get this baby out when he says he will, then look out: we may have a serious contender. The 2005 Oscar season could look a whole lot like 1993 when Spielberg had ‘the blockbuster’ –JURASSIC PARK– and ‘the heart wrenching Jewish period piece’ – SCHINDLER’S LIST. This year WAR OF THE WORLDS and VENGEANCE could do the trick for good ‘ol Steven, who I’m sure many Academy members would love to give another Best Picture Oscar to after robbing him in 1998. If the film pushes too many buttons or gets charged with Zionism then the film may have some trouble; the politics of it all may certainly be a problem for some people. Plus, Spielberg’s latest films have been good but have fallen short of Oscar glory with MINORITY REPORT, THE TERMINAL and CATCH ME IF YOU CAN all scoring a total of 0 Oscars and only a couple of nods each, with only one acting nomination. Plus, the film is being written by the same guy that brought us THE LIFE OF DAVID GALE. But, if the film pulls at your heart strings and John Williams provides the certain needed CHARIOTS OF FIRE inspirational music, then it may be Oscar #3 for American’s biggest Hollywood director.
2. KINGDOM OF HEAVEN – May 6th (20th Century Fox) watch trailer
The other question mark though is the early release date. Some people point this out as a hurdle, but it can also for your advantage. FORREST GUMP, BRAVEHEART and GLADIATOR all had Spring release dates and they were helped by it. The thing is, if you release a great Oscar-potential film in the middle of spring you get ALL of the Oscar ink. Unlike December where there’s like 10 films drowning out each other’s buzz, a really good spring/summer Oscar film will gets all the press and like the aforementioned winning films, build enough buzz to sustain itself and cement its place in peoples minds all the way up until Chrismas – at which point it comes out on DVD and people remember how awesome it is again! That’s the advantage folks. So if KINGDOM measures up, look out, this one has the potential to win Best Picture, sweep most of the techs and handily win Best Director as well, due to the fact that Ridley was snubbed in 2000. Also interesting is that if BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN turns out to be good enough and not piss too many people off, we may see another Scott vs. Lee showdown: how exciting! Overall, I’m hoping the film will not disappoint, but from what I’ve heard, I think we may have another incredible film on our hands from the mind of Ridley Scott. 1. CINDERELLA MAN – June 3rd (Universal/Miramax) watch trailer No we come to the big one. All I can say is: wow! Academy Award winners Russell Crowe and Renee Zellweger in an America touting period epic, directed and produced by Academy Award winners Ron Howard and Brian Grazer, written by Academy Award winner Akiva Goldsman, scored by Thomas Newman.....you get the point. This film is pure, freakin, Oscar gold. Universal is already starting to campaign for this one and even (the albeit few) people who have seen the film and say they hate Ron Howard admit the movie is extremely intense and moving. This ones got everything going for it, and the fact that MILLION DOLLAR BABY won this year may even help. We saw what MOULIN ROUGE! did for CHICAGO. Besides the Academy went 60 years without awarding a Western for Best Picture and then gave it to DANCES WITH WOLVES and UNFORGIVEN only two years apart. Why can’t the same happen here? Its been 29 years since ROCKY so why not two boxing films back-to-back? Besides M$B is more about fathers and daughters and relationships than boxing, just like CINDERELLA MAN looks to be more about how Americans overcame the Great Depression and a story of the triumph of one man against huge odds than about beating someone’s brains in. Again, what I said about the early release date for KINGDOM also applies here. However, it is important to note that in the last two years a couple very Oscar-baity Summer films didn’t quite measure up and were more or less forgotten by Oscartime (their names being ROAD TO PERDITION and SEABISCUIT). It also may not measure up to all of the hype and being the presumed frontrunner can sometimes be hard to live up to: i.e. THE AVIATOR and GANGS OF NEW YORK. But, until his one royally crashes and burns its hands-down the one to beat. And Russell Crowe is, in my opinion (as I’ve been told to say these days), the frontrunner for the Best Actor Oscar this year. The role is pure bait: a real person, a loving father, someone who triumphs over adversity and another great accent Russell’s gonna hit bang on. AND – not only was he screwed for A BEAUTIFUL MIND but he’s received a whole lot of great press lately, from the coverage of his happy marriage, the birth of his child, the Chris Rock Oscar night rant about how awesome he is and just three weeks ago, Gentlemen’s Quarterly picking him as the Best Actor of Our Generation. His only competition will be from Joaquin Phoenix for his portrayal of the legend Johnny Cash. Ironic as I really wouldn’t mind either of these awesome GLADIATOR actors winning as I still believe that Joaquin was totally robbed in 2000. Oh, and put down Thomas Newman for a Best Score nomination. I’m already calling him for the win. Call me crazy if you want but all CINDERELLA MAN needs is a BP nom and the win his is. He’s one of American’s best film scorers, been nominated like 6 times and still not won for some reason passing understanding. His score for MAN will probably be one of his best to date given the emotional, sentimental subject matter and he probably would have won for LEMONY SNICKET if Finding Neverland hadn’t been in the race and got the BP nom. The film has got it all going for it right now, and working the Oscar bait machine they have Tony Angelotti, renowned throughout the business as the best Oscar strategist working today. Oh, and another thing, the whole "none of them our owed anything because all the people involved have already won Oscars" arguement means almost nothing. For one, Ron Howard can totally win Best Director again, they really like him in Hollywood. Paul Giamatti has been snubbed for two years in a row now and even if the role is small can still even possibly win. Renee donesn’t need to win again for this film to win Best Picture. And Russell Crowe is...well...Russell Crowe and many feel he is already due for Oscar number two. Plus, if Hilary Swank can do it then Russell Crowe should be able to do it in his sleep. Plus, theres the fact that sometimes "being owed" doesn’t get you anywhere or mean anything in the long run anyhow. Hows "being owed" working for Martin Scorsese? Or Kate Winslet? Or Ed Harris? Or Robert Altman? Or Tom Cruise? Or Johnny Depp?....I could go on. The thing with Oscar is, if they like you enough you can win regardless of "stats" which tell you otherwise (case in point: Halle Berry, Denzel Washington). Its going to be a very exciting, very interesting year, I personally can’t wait and its so refreshing to have a slew of movies actually worth cheering for. Cheers, Joshua Lawson (editor – OscarTalk) Spencer Shannon on the Films to Watch For... "Cinderella
Man" (Universal) – Ron Howard directs Russell Crowe, Renee
Zellweger & Paul Giamatti in a bio of former heavyweight boxing
champ: James J. Braddock (1935-37) For the record, he was defeated in
'37 by Joe Louis. Whom then held title a dozen years! – (June
release date) "An
Unfinished Life" (Miramax) – Robert Redford in the yet to
score "The Golden Boy" Lasse newest. Though this was postponed
from last Christmas... "The
Producers"(Universal) – Of course from the Mel Brooks Broadway
musical & like it, it keeps same cast of Matthew Brodrick &
Nathan Lane. – (Dec.) |
