Oscar Talk - thanks to Fee
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Thanks to Fee: Oscar Talk Issue #44
We’re Back! (And
so is the NBR...)
Hey readers, its been a long time
since we’ve
had an issue of OscarTalk so I thought that sending out an issue
right before the National Board of Review announces their Top Ten
would be a good way to get back into it. First of all, for
those who don’t know the NBR is a group of critics and other
media types who are the first of the many ‘critics groups’ to
announce their winners. This year, the NBR will tell us what they
think tomorrow, Dec. 7th. Because they are the first
group to announce they have a great deal of power and can set the
tone for the Big Race. That being said, the last time that their
#1 pick went on to win Best Picture was 1999, and before that,
it was 1993. So one way of looking at the NBR is that for a films
Oscar chances, its actually much better to come 2nd or
3rd. That also being said, Oscar’s all-time champ,
RETURN OF THE KING, didn’t even place on their Top 10, and
we all remember what that film did at the Oscars. So, the
NBR must be simultaneously taken seriously and also with a grain
of salt. So far this year, it actually feels like we have
a race! Which is exciting for once, although don’t get me
wrong I thoroughly enjoyed ROTK destroying everything in its path.
MUNICH remains the frontrunner, although noone has seen it and
I’m personally very skeptical of his chances. For one, the
film was handed an ‘R’ rating the other week, not good
for good ‘ol Oscar, that only really works if the ‘R’ rating
is for being a big, bloody, period war epic. As well, how will
Stevie handle the subject matter? Part of me thinks he’s
screwed no matter what he does: either too bias one way or the
other, or taking a wishy washy stand which will make him look weak. Anyone
following the early reviews of MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA should be quite
concerned with its Oscar chances, the film is so far tracking at
42% on Rotten Tomatoes, with a 5.5 average rating. While its early
and only 12 reviews are out, those are NOT Academy Award numbers,
they are a disaster. The early world is that the film is beautiful,
with great sets, cinematography and costumes, but no real substance.
This could change, but that’s the early line.
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN looks more and more like it will be getting a Best Picture nomination. While I think theres no chance of it actually winning, the nomination is very much, in the bag. WALK THE LINE also looks fairly safe at this point and people are still raving about the two main performances. That film has also done fairly well at the box-office, which I think all but assures its nomination. CINDERELLA MAN’s ‘re-discover’ campaign has just begun, and with JARHEAD imploding and its Oscar chances completely destroyed, CINDERELLA MAN is looking like the film that will clench that final 5th spot in the Best Picture lineup. The FYC campaign is mind-boggiling, Universal really cares about this puppy. If you go to www.SportsIllustrated.com and click on any of the sports headings, you’ll see ads for the DVD running in every slot. Its Sports Illustrated!?! They mean business folks, and anyone doubting Universal’s power should reconsider. So, we’ve got MUNICH, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN,
WALK THE LINE, CINDERELLA MAN and...one more slot open. And
that slot belongs to KING KONG. The buzz surrounding this movie
is so massive right now its kinda scary. And all of it is being
done with a quite small ad campaign, and quite simply a whole lot
of finesse. People who saw screeners of the film in the first few
days of December say that it is breathtaking and not like anything
you’ve ever seen before. The CG is apparently revolutionary,
the script is tight, funny and well executed, Naomi Watts steals
the show and could get a Best Actress nomination, and yes...at
the end "there won’t be a dry eye in the house". When I hear
things like that and people throwing around comparisons to TITANIC
in terms of its size and impact I take notice. And I think that
all OscarTalkers should start to take notice too. This movie may
not just be a ‘B’ level, throw-back adventure flick,
this movie could be Peter Jackson’s next dance with Oscar. Cheers,Joshua
Lawson
OscarTalk Predicts the NBR
SCOTT FEINBERG (OT, WTNH-8, ABC NEWS New
Haven, OscarWatch)
1. Munich 2. Mrs. Henderson Presents
3. Syriana 4. Brokeback Mountain 5. Memoirs of a Geisha 6. Good
Night, and Good 7. Crash 8. Walk the Line 9. Cinderella
Man 10.
The Squid and the Whale ACTOR:
Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)ACTRESS: Dench (Mrs. Henderson
Presents...)SUPPORTING ACTOR: Clooney (Syriana and Good Night,
and Good Luck)SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Li (Memoirs of a Geisha)DIRECTOR:
Lee (Brokeback Mountain)SCREENPLAY: Haggis (Crash)YOUNG'N: Kilcher
(The New World)
JOSHUA LAWSON (OT, Editor) 1. Walk the Line 2. Munich 3. Memoirs
of a Geisha 4. Cinderella Man 5. Brokeback Mountain 6. The Producers
7. Crash 8. Match Point 9. Good Night, and Good Luck 10. Syriana ACTOR:
Hoffman (Capote)ACTRESS: Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)SUPPORTING
ACTOR: Clooney (Syriana, Good Night and Good Luck)SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Keaton (The Family Stone)DIRECTOR: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)SCREENPLAY:
Haggis (Crash)YOUNG’n: Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain,
Jarhead)
JEFFREY SHANNON (OT, Variety's 2002 Awards
Oracle Winner)
1. Brokeback Mountain 2. Munich
3. Good Night, and Good Luck 4. Capote 5. Memoirs of a Geisha 6.
Walk the Line 7. Cinderella Man 8. Mrs. Henderson Presents... 9.
Crash 10. Match Point ACTOR:
Hoffman (Capote)ACTRESS: Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)SUPPORTING
ACTOR: Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Li
(Memoirs of a Geisha)DIRECTOR: Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)SCREENPLAY:
Haggis (Crash)YOUNG'N: Kilcher (The New World)
SHANE MCNEIL (OT)
1. Memoirs of a Geisha 2. Munich
3. Walk the Line 4. Good Night, and Good Luck 5. The Constant Gardener
6. Brokeback Mountain 7. Pride and Prejudice 8. Cinderella
Man 9. Match Point 10. Crash ACTOR: Hoffman (Capote)ACTRESS: Witherspoon
(Walk the Line)SUPPORTING ACTOR: Clooney (Syriana and Good Night,
and Good Luck)SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Adams (Junebug)DIRECTOR: Meirelles
(The Constant Gardener)SCREENPLAY: Allen (Match Point)YOUNG'N:
Kilcher (The New World)
OscarTalk Experts TOTALS:
1. Munich 2. Brokeback Mountain
3. Walk the Line 4. Good Night and Good Luck 5. Memoirs of a Geisha
6. Cinderella Man 7. Mrs. Henderson Presents 8. Capote 9. Crash
10. Syriana
OSCARTALK IS: Joshua Lawson, Creator
and Editor
Spencer Shannon; John Pilkington; Scott
Feinberg and Shane McNeil, Columnists
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