A growing number of movies lately seem to be in a holding pattern insofar as their releases are concerned.

Here's a short list: Sony/MGM's remake of "The Pink Panther" starring Steve Martin; Par's Nicolas Cage-starrer "The Weather Man"; Regency's Marc Forster-helmed "Stay"; Fox Searchlight comedy "The Ringer"; another Martin pic, Disney's "Shopgirl"; and Regency's "The Untitled Onion Movie."

Life can be tough in limbo-land. Interest costs run up. Negative buzz builds up, too.

In truth, however, not all movies consigned to the shelf are necessarily in trouble.

It may be simple logistics: Two studios don't want to release competing films with the same star or competing films with similar plotlines (such as White House romancers "First Daughter" and "Chasing Liberty"). Or it can be artistic: The studio wants to hold the film for a re-edit.

Often it's timing: With a crowded release sked, a studio has to carefully time an opening so that it doesn't compete with rivals' films or even the studio's own.

For example, many think "Cinderella Man's" disappointing box office depended on its release timing. The pic was skedded for December 2004, but Russell Crowe's injury delayed production; some argue Universal should have delayed the June release even longer.

Aside from bad buzz, there is one other downside to a delay: money.

Every day a film sits in storage is another day of interest payments. Typically, a budget is financed at the prime rate plus 1%. Over 18 months, a $40 million movie can see $3 million in interest added to its budget.

"If you're holding a movie for a better date, or for Academy consideration, or for better editing, then you come out OK on the other side," observes one former studio head. "If you're holding a movie because it's just not working, well, that's an ugly, ugly black hole."

Hollywood once muttered that "The Godfather" must be in trouble, since its December 1971 launch was delayed due to the fact that Francis Coppola was shooting added scenes. "Titanic," "Moulin Rouge" and "Gangs of New York" all had releases delayed due to production setbacks; the distribs wanted to wait until the films were right. In each case, the results were successful.

But there have been plenty of examples when audiences saw a delayed film and decided it wasn't worth the wait -- think "The Alamo," "All the Pretty Horses," "Town and Country," "Against the Ropes" and "View From the Top."

While all these films were sitting on the shelf, there were all kinds of delays, due to production woes, post-production clashes, legal considerations -- and other reasons.

Par's "The Weather Man" wrapped more than a year ago, but last fall it would have faced off against "National Treasure,"another Cage movie. "Weather" was delayed until April 2005, but five weeks before it was to open, the studio moved the comedy drama to Oct. 28.

"Weather Man" producer Todd Black asserts the delay was driven by two factors: Critics, he said, liked the film at early screenings and suggested it be moved back to awards season; and Cage and director Gore Verbinski weren't available to promote the film at the earlier date. (Cage was shooting "Ghost Rider"; Verbinski was starting production on back-to-back "Pirates of the Caribbean" pics.)

Par has another awards hopeful in Cameron Crowe's "Elizabethtown," which has been moved from July to the fall.

Regency's "Stay" is a more complicated matter. The studio won a bidding war for the David Benioff spec in October 2001, in an unusual deal that paid Benioff all his money upfront and included a special progress-to-production commitment. The film started shooting in October 2003, with "Finding Neverland" helmer Forster at the helm, and wrapped principal photography in early 2004.

The studio didn't want to release it at the same time as Forster's "Finding Neverland" -- which itself had sat on the shelf for a year, due to a legal agreement among Miramax, the James M. Barrie estate and Universal-Revolution, which released a live-action "Peter Pan." With no release date for "Stay" in sight, Forster was happy to take his time editing, and even re-mixed its sound twice.

But Regency's question now is finding the right date for the aptly-titled "Stay." The film defies easy marketing categories: It's a metaphysical thriller.

Furthermore, marketing will most certainly require an adroit touch, given that "Stay" takes a nonlinear narrative approach and centers on suicide.

Regency is searching for the right approach and the right timing. And so "Stay" now has an Oct. 14 release date a full two years after the start of production.

A similar scheduling problem affected Fox Searchlight's "The Ringer." The comedy was initially held up by having to seek approval from the Special Olympics, which is prominently featured in the pic. It was ready for release last spring, but would have competed with another Farrelly Bros. comedy at Fox, "Fever Pitch."

The late summer might have provided a home for "Ringer," but reps for star Johnny Knoxville interceded. Warner Bros.' "The Dukes of Hazzard" will unspool in August -- rather than the original plan of going in June -- and his agents cringed at two Knoxville films competing. "Ringer" is now headed for release in December.

Meanwhile, trailers for MGM's "The Pink Panther" -- featuring Martin's re-invention of the Inspector Clouseau character -- had been running for much of this year, prepping audiences for an August opening of the comedy.

But in June, two months after Sony closed the deal for MGM, "Panther" was shifted to Feb. 10, 2006 -- where it will open against Universal's "Curious George," which itself was moved back four months from its original release date. Sony's marketing team expressed a need to put their own stamp on the "Panther" campaign.

"Shopgirl" went into production in fall 2003. At that point, the film had a certain notoriety: When Winona Ryder was arrested for shoplifting, she said she was prepping for the pic.

The romantic comedy's female lead went instead to Claire Danes.

Last winter, the film was rumored for Sundance. But the studio instead opted to hold it for the Toronto Film Festival in September, as a way to launch a a campaign as a possible Oscar contender.

The pic opens Oct. 21.

"We felt a sophisticated comedy like this would be a better fit at Toronto and there was going to be too much time between Sundance and a fall release," Disney spokesman Dennis Rice said.

The sketch comedy pic "The Untitled Onion Movie," financed by Regency and distribbed by Fox Searchlight, began production in November 2003. Two months later, the filmmakers had about 90 minutes of footage. Execs trimmed it back to an hour, leaving the need for another 30 to 40 minutes of ripped-from-the-headlines vignettes.

However, changes in the Onion's management meant the film's co-directors, Mike Maguire and Tom Kuntz, most likely won't be returning to finish the job.

The pic is now headed past the $10 million mark. While Searchlight may still distribute the pic, it's apparently no longer helping oversee production. Regency says it plans to resume production in August and wants to have the comedy in theaters by early 2006.

"Sketch movies are all about timeliness," explains Regency production prexy Sanford Panitch. "But we're in a world in which dating a release has become everything."

Making the current kudos race more interesting are two major quirks: the slight shift in Oscar scheduling and, more significant, a reshuffled deck of players.

Miramax has always been a major force in awards campaigns, and this year, there will be the revised Miramax as well as the Weinsteins' as-yet-unnamed company. And as old stalwart Fine Line steps back, Picturehouse -- the new HBO-New Line venture -- moves into the spotlight, under the stewardship of Bob Berney, an Oscar vet who propelled "Monster" and "Whale Rider," among others, into kudos land.

As for timing, the 78th annual Academy Awards will be held March 5 -- a week later than usual. In light of the accelerated sked inaugurated two years ago, the kudocast would logically be on Feb. 26, but for 2006 the ceremony was postponed one week due to the Winter Olympics. (The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences hasn't announced other dates on its calendar, meaning there could be an extra week between nominations and awards.)

It's impossible to calculate whether timing affects the outcome, but awards campaigns have a certain rhythm -- campaigners need to carefully time screenings to give voters enough time to see the film, but try to make sure that enthusiasm doesn't peak too early. This year will be interesting because any change in that rhythm can alter things.

Spielberg stacks up

Then there's the Steven Spielberg factor. Like his double whammy in 1993 with "Jurassic Park" and "Schindler's List," this year's two-fer of "War of the Worlds" and the as-yet-untitled Munich Olympics project -- set to open in December for DreamWorks-Universal -- could both get major consideration in all categories.

Awards voters have saluted popcorn pics in the past. The question is whether Paramount-DreamWorks' "Worlds" will be considered for best pic like "Raiders of the Lost Ark" and "Jaws," or singled out only in tech categories, as "Jurassic" was when Spielberg's more serious "Schindler's List" opened later in that same year.

It's an interesting sign of kudos handicapping that pundits are already predicting the Munich film as a pic contender, even though it's only finished a few days of principal photography.

Sked jockeying

Given the accelerated awards schedule in recent years, it might seem logical that studios would follow the "Gladiator" model: Open the awards hopeful in the first half of the year, then launch the DVD with a lot of hoopla during kudos season.

It worked for "Seabiscuit," but this year, the only major studio film to follow that formula is Universal-Miramax's "Cinderella Man." Some have questioned whether the disappointing box office will hurt its Oscar chances. Maybe, but Oscar voters tend to overlook B.O. and vote for their faves and, so far, "Cinderella" has been getting industry thumbs-up.

Meanwhile, Lions Gate's "Crash" is serious and, most important, is the kind of film that inspires great passion from its fans. Like every awards hopeful, those two pics are affected by one key factor -- what else opens this year.

There are only a few other contenders from the January-June period: New Line's performance-rich "The Upside of Anger," as well as plenty of contenders in the tech categories, such as Fox's "Kingdom of Heaven" and "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith," WB's "Batman Begins," and Dimension's "Sin City."

Indie offerings

The year's first half also introduced films that created positive buzz at Sundance, Berlin and Cannes, though these pics are skedded for release in the second half. That list includes Focus Features' "Broken Flowers," directed by Jim Jarmusch and starring Bill Murray; DreamWorks' Woody Allen pic "Match Point"; New Line's "A History of Violence," directed by David Cronenberg; Paramount Classics' "Hustle & Flow"; Samuel Goldwyn's "The Squid and the Whale," starring Jeff Daniels and Laura Linney; and the Weinsteins' "Transamerica," with Felicity Huffman.

And, with the accelerated awards season, Venice and Toronto lineups take on even more gravitas in terms of awards timing.

The January-June period saw too many interesting toons and docus to mention. June alone saw the bows of "Rize," "March of the Penguins," "The Last Mogul," "Deep Blue," "Mad Hot Ballroom" and "Rock School." (If the docu race is heating up, why isn't the pic contest?)

Meanwhile, toons from the first half include Fox's "Robots," Disney's "Howl's Moving Castle" and DreamWorks' "Madagascar." They'll be joined by a bevy of others this year, including Disney's "Chicken Little," DreamWorks' "Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit" and WB's Tim Burton pic "Corpse Bride."

As for live-action, this year offers several high-profile pics from Oscar-winning directors, aside from Spielberg, Ron Howard and Woody Allen. The list includes TriStar's "Oliver Twist" (Roman Polanski), Universal's "Jarhead" (Sam Mendes) and "King Kong" (Peter Jackson) .

But that is the nature of awards soothsaying. Handicappers study the upcoming films, and many of them look good on paper.

Following are some of the July-December openers -- not including animated features, docus or foreign films -- that will be up in a variety of categories, from tech to best pic.

There are a few disclaimers. Sleepers and last-minute additions always pop up: Last year at this time, "Million Dollar Baby" was not even on the schedule for 2004.

July: DreamWorks' "The Island"; Fox's "Fantastic Four"; Warner Bros.' "Charlie & the Chocolate Factory."

August: Focus Features' "The Constant Gardener" (Fernando Meirelles, Ralph Fiennes); Par Classics' "Asylum" (written by Patrick Marber).

September: Focus Features' "Pride and Prejudice" (Keira Knightley); Miramax's "Proof" (Gwyneth Paltrow) and "The Libertine" (Johnny Depp); Picturehouse's "The Thing About My Folks" (Paul Reiser); Sony Classics' "Capote" (Philip Seymour Hoffman); Warner Independent's Liev Schreiber film "Everything Is Illuminated"; Disney's Jodie Foster thriller "Flight Plan" and "The Greatest Game Ever Played" (directed by Bill Paxton).

October: Disney's "Shop Girl" (Steve Martin); Fox's Curtis Hanson-Cameron Diaz pic "In Her Shoes"; Fox Searchlight's "Bee Season" (Richard Gere, Juliette Binoche) and "Separate Lies" (the directing debut of Julian Fellowes); Lions Gate's "Lord of War" (Nicolas Cage) and "Fierce People" (Diane Lane); Paramount's "Elizabethtown" and "The Weather Man" (Nicolas Cage); Universal's "Prime" (Meryl Streep, Uma Thurman); Warner Independent's George Clooney-helmed Edward R. Murrow pic "Good Night. And, Good Luck" (and, yes, that's the punctuation); Weinsteins-Disney's "Derailed" (Jennifer Aniston, Clive Owen).

November: Fox's "Walk the Line" (Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon as Johnny Cash and June Carter); New Line's "The New World" (Terrence Malick); Paramount's "Get Rich or Die Tryin' " (50 Cent and director Jim Sheridan); Sony Classics' Merchant-Ivory "The White Countess" (with Natasha Richardson, Vanessa and Lynn Redgrave) and "Breakfast on Pluto" (Neil Jordan); Sony-Revolution's "Rent" (Chris Columbus); Warner Bros.' "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire"; Weinsteins-Miramax's "The Matador" (Pierce Brosnan).

December: Disney's "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" ("Shrek" co-director Andrew Adamson's live-action debut) and "Casanova" (Lasse Hallstrom, Heath Ledger); Focus Features' "Brokeback Mountain" (Ang Lee, Ledger again); Sony's Rob Marshall-helmed "Memoirs of a Geisha" and the Jude Law-Sean Penn "All the King's Men"; Universal-Sony's "The Producers"; Weinsteins-Disney's "Mrs. Henderson Presents" (Stephen Frears, Judi Dench).

Several of this year's bows had been penciled in for 2004 release. And Warner Bros. has several contenders opening in the next six months with, so far, flexible dates. They include "Syriana" (George Clooney); the untitled Niki Caro movie with Charlize Theron; Curtis Hanson's "Lucky You"; and Darren Aronofsky's "The Fountain."

The majority of major preems have already, or will, take place in Gotham this summer: "Madagascar" in May; "Bewitched," "War of the Worlds," "Howl's Moving Castle," and "Dark Water" in June; "Fantastic Four," "The Island" and "Wedding Crashers" in July.

"This is the biggest year I've ever seen for premieres in New York," said L.A.-based event planner Jeffrey Best. "But at least we've still got the award-season events out here."

A few mega-films have a slew of openings ("The Lord of the Rings" had more premieres than it had elves). But studio belt-tightening means that usually the premiere is either in L.A. or New York -- not both.

If a New York-preeming film has another red carpet event in Los Angeles, as there was Monday for "War of the Worlds" this is usually labeled a "special screening," which doesn't trigger the premiere contract clause whereby talent and family have to be flown in.

"Everything is cyclical," said Universal special projects senior veep Hollace David. "And this year it just made sense to premiere a lot of movies in New York."

Publicists at various studios say there are usually three reasons for premiering in Gotham.

• The talent either lives or works in Manhattan. "Bewitched" director Nora Ephron lives there and star Nicole Kidman is on location with "Fur."

• It's where the film is set, which is essentially the case with "War of the Worlds" and "Fantastic Four," which will be the first preem ever held on Liberty Island.

• If European-based actors are available for a short window, New York is logistically easier than L.A. "The Island" is set on the West Coast, but that factor is trumped by the fact that stars Ewan McGregor and Scarlett Johansson are both working in the U.K. The shorter flight to New York was better for their scheduling.

Event organizers say each coast has its advantages: L.A. has more large theaters while New York has more large, party-suitable venues. Hold a premiere in L.A. and travel costs are reduced, since most talent and execs are there; launch in New York and it's easier getting stars around the morning talkshow circuit.

Easier street closure

On the upside for L.A., it's easier to arrange the red-carpet setup, which usually involves a street closure. In New York, "It's World War III if you want to close a lane," one planner said.

At the Tribeca Film Festival's opening-night of "The Interpreter" in April, the combined power of everyone from Robert De Niro on down couldn't close 54th Street facing the Ziegfeld Theater. Organizers settled for one lane.

And the 1,162-seat Ziegfeld is pretty much the only location for a single-screen house in Manhattan. (The single-screen Beekman, with only 510 seats, closed last Sunday.) The alternatives are multiplexes (which studios avoid because of cross traffic from other auditoriums); or setting up your own screen, which is what Sony did when it premiered "Hitch" on Ellis Island in February.

Studio planners say there might be more use soon of the Skirball Center's 850-seat theater at NYU, and the Museum of Natural History's 926-seat LeFrak Theater, which Fox used last summer for "The Day After Tomorrow."

One studio exec pointed out one advantage of a New York preem: "There can be sameness to doing premieres in L.A. You see the same 500 people over and over."

Gotham's fresh faces

However, those familiar L.A. faces are at least famous. In New York, there's a paucity of big-name celebrity guests: "Today" show weatherman Al Roker is greeted by the press as though he's Leonardo DiCaprio.

On the other hand, instead of having the usual agents and managers who populate L.A. preems, in New York there's a chance to invite the editors of weekly magazines (and their corporate bosses), which keeps relationships warm and -- some publicists think -- results in additional photo coverage.

On the all-important subject of costs, it's agreed that New York prices are higher, but that doesn't necessarily mean the premiere tab is more.

"You just spend the money differently," one studio planner said. "I don't have a bigger budget. I spend more on food and drink in New York, but I don't have as big a decor and entertainment package. And I'm usually going into an existing venue rather than creating something from scratch in a parking lot."

Consider party costs at two museums on opposite coasts: NYC's MoMA rents for $50,000; L.A.'s Hammer goes for $25,000. Arts lovers may say you get what you pay for, but these costs are just for space, not the quality of art inside.

Gotham's turn on the premiere cycle won't end with the summer, either: "King Kong" -- likely to be a gargantuan bow -- will preem this December in Manhattan.